Wednesday, January 11, 2017

AL South Preview: Season 24

This entry marks the third of a series of previews by division for the young 24th season of Upper Deck.  A run down of each team will be followed by an overall analysis of the division.  We will continue with the AL South.






The Sultans had one of the more complete teams in season 23, with a top 10 offense, defense, and pitching staff, leading them to their consecutive division title.  After two consecutive first round exits, however, some changes were in order.
SP Josh Shaw, a 17-game winner just a season ago, was allowed to walk via free agency.  A combination of pitchers have been tapped to pick up valuable innings - most recently the new acquisitions Travis Stripling and Daryl Wohlers, the latter being a veteran with nearly 3,000 career IP and 177 career victories.  The bullpen was strengthened by the signing of groundball pitcher Antonio Richardson and the retention of RP Pepe Beltre.
Offensively, the trade of Edgardo Colon, who made 79 starts at short in season 23, to Scottsdale ceded the position to promising youngster SS Steven Roosevelt.  Defensive stud Doug Lloyd was signed to split catching duties with Jhoulys Canseco.  Gerald Hoffman (.303/.362/.472 in season 23) made starts at a number of positions last season, but was let go and remains unsigned. Chris Knoblauch, another bench bat who hit 22 bombs in season 23 to pad his .251 ISO, suffered a similar fate.  Those roles have been filled by 2B Moe Stanifer and 3B Miguel Cervantes.




Key losses: LF Ren Fujiwara
Though New Orleans had an offense that was roughly in line with the middle of the league last season, its pitching staff surrendered a league-worst .488 slugging percentage, while its defense committed nearly an error per game.  However, this is not without reason; the team, which has been under .500 since season 17, is deep within a rebuild that has garnered top prospects such as SS Ralph Walker and SP Bill Stuart, and trade acquisition RP David Johnson recently debuted as well.
The Crawdaddies let 1B/LF/DH Ren Fujiwara walk this offseason, and experienced some minor losses to the rotation.  These innings have been accounted for in part by free agent signee Fausto Romero, but largely through the promotion of SP Gary Beresford, who is averaging more than six innings per start in his young career.  The club also hopes that Gorkys Sosa will stabilize the bullpen.
The Crawdaddies’ most significant moves came in the form of contract extensions to several players.  RF Willie Ontiveros received a five-year extension that buys out his first three seasons of free agency, 25-year old 2B Hernan Lee received a three-year renewal, and 3B Donnie Morris received five-year pact that buys out his first four seasons of free agency.  These extensions provide a long window during which the Crawdaddies can compete.





Oklahoma City has placed a premium on defense, an important feature of a team that relies as heavily on the ground ball as the Cowboys.  And it may be that combination that led the club to 91 victories and its second consecutive wild card berth - despite a pitching staff and offense that rate in as just slightly above average.
One of the team’s greatest strengths from a season ago was a late innings bullpen that featured Roscoe Barkley, who converted 47 of 49 save opportunities last season and was recognized as Fireman of the Year.  However, general manager rkdixon saw an opportunity to upgrade, trading Barkley for Davey Torres, a serious offensive and pitch calling upgrade for the club behind the dish.  As for the bullpen, RP Pepper Cumberland has stepped into the closer role, thus far with great success.
In a move that corresponds to the Torres acquisition, the Cowboys dealt Johan LaHair, a fine offensive catcher, for Ted Park.  In nearly two full seasons since leaving Pittsburgh, Park has emerged as a reliable everyday option, hitting .288 and bashing 45 home runs.  The club hopes that he and shortstop Ramiro Pujols can improve an offense that lost DH Omar Blasco while maintaining their defensive integrity.




Key losses: SP Bob Leyritz
The Water Dogs won 84 games last season, tied for their second highest total since season 16.  Unfortunately, the team and its top 10 OPS were hobbled by a defense that committed 17 more errors (121) than the league average and pitching staff whose peripherals rate slightly below average.
The team did not suffer many major losses, with the most damaging being starter Bob Leyritz.  Over the past three seasons, Leyritz has contributed more than 600 innings to the Tampa rotation, 36 starts of which resulted in wins for the southpaw.  Fortunately, the spot of resident lefty has been filled by 28-year old tongue twister and starting pitcher Greg Craig, who has thus far filled in admirably with a 1.29 WHIP.  The club also signed Mark Matsui to eat innings out of the bullpen.
Many of the team’s moves came in the form of extending current talent.  Identifying players that give the club the best chance to win, GM jmaese extended DH John Buddie, owner of a career .291 batting average and 347 career HR, 3B C.J. Mitre and his 366 career long balls, and defensive wiz SS Turner Snopek.  All three are extended through at least season 26 and extend the team’s window to build around its core.
AL South Analysis
Though New Orleans may not contend this season, prudent moves should allow the team to couple its well cultivated minor league pipeline with its current talent in the near future and validate its long rebuild.  Tampa Bay has also positioned itself to build around its current core, ideally reversing an up-and-down trend that has left them out of two of the previous three postseasons.  Just how soon the Water Dogs make the playoffs will largely depend on the rotation’s ability to stay healthy and effective.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City and Monterrey seem well positioned to compete once again, though perhaps one (or both) may take a step back this season.  The Cowboys took some risks this offseason - namely in trading Barkley - but worked hard to improve its offense without hurting its defense. The Sultans, meanwhile, made a fully of moves this offseason while simultaneously committing to players already within the system, but may find itself rather active at the trade deadline should they need to replace lost production.

The division may once again come down to Monterrey and Oklahoma City, though the division should be competitive like last season, when the Sultans and Cowboys both finished with 91 wins - just seven ahead of the Water Dogs.
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Tuesday, January 10, 2017

NL West Preview: Season 24

This entry marks the second of a series of previews by division for the young 24th season of Upper Deck.  A run down of each team will be followed by an overall analysis of the division.  Today, we will wrap up the west coast by previewing the NL West.


The Las Vegas Desert Dogs are only one full season removed from winning the NL West, but took a half step back last season.  They won just 85 games, six fewer than the year prior and good for third in the most competitive division in the National League.
Despite the Desert Dogs’ well documented bullpen woes - including a slightly above average 20 blown saves - the club actually finished with a pitching staff that was well above league average by most metrics.  What consistently plagued the team was an offense that triple slashed .251/.312/.409 - below average figures across the board.
Nonetheless, the bullpen may have cost the team a postseason berth, with a narrow margin of only three games deciding the second wild card team.  As a result, Las Vegas did its best to shore up an aging and at times ineffective pen.  They saved plenty of money by declining the $14.3M option of Roberto Nieves and allowed Harold Lee to walk after a largely ineffective season 23.  They then moved to sign 37-year old Ernesto Cervelli, who brings a 1.29 WHIP and a career 3.59 ERA in nearly 1,800 innings pitched.  Additionally, it is hoped that an early-season promotion of young flamethrower RP Wilson Cox will supplement the pen.
The club also signed C Orber Moreno to back up primary C Darron Wilson.  Moreno provides top tier pitch calling and a solid bat off the bench.  The biggest move, however, probably came in the form of a four-year extension for one star player, 1B Jamie Boyd. The left-handed first basemen has a career .838 OPS over parts of six seasons with the organization.  The extension buys out first three seasons of free agency.  Boyd will anchor the team along with LF Robin Fonville, 3B Frank Bigley, and SPs Zachrey Palmer and Andre Adams.


Despite floating around .500 for a number of seasons, Omaha has helped its future efforts with several notable recent draft picks, including SP Tomas Cabeza and CF Yorrick Eyre.  Last season at the Major League level, a below average offense was coupled with an average pitching staff.  Unfortunately, an ownership lapse throughout the offseason may have hindered its present efforts to bring a championship to Omaha after two consecutive fourth place finishes.
Upon taking over of the front office, wxscott quickly made moves to stabilize the flailing organization. Veteran SPs Jose Pelaez and Randy Sweeney were signed to give much needed innings to an overworked pitching staff, and have thus far delivered.  RP Armando Cruz was brought in to replace some of the innings lost by the losses of RPs Luis Mantalban and Ernesto Cervelli, signed by division rival Las Vegas.
Another key move came earlier this season, when SP Onelki Galarraga was extended for four years by previous ownership.  His 1.32 WHIP over nearly 450 IP last two seasons certainly qualifies him as a rotation stalwart and worthy investment.  However, the lapse in ownership also allowed SP Jamie Fulchino and OFs Hideo Yang and Melky Gutierrez to leave via free agency.  The new ownership has since promoted the powerful LF Jason Evert to replace some of the lost production in the outfield.  Yang and Gutierrez remain unsigned.
Key additions: SP Luis Sierra, IF Curt Gant,
The Santa Cruz Mavericks have improved each season under bigpop34’s leadership, and made the postseason as a wild card team last season at 90-72.  The pitching staff’s opponents’ average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and team WHIP and ERA all ranked within the top four league wide, while its offense lagged slightly behind league averages.
Despite its pitching successes, the Mavericks allowed Travis Thurman and Francisco Abreu to leave via free agency.  The two combined for nearly 50 starts and 300 innings pitched, pitching to a sub 1.20 WHIP and 3.30 ERA.  To replace some of those innings, the team claimed SP Luis Sierra to fill out the rotation.  The team also let utility infielder Jamie Won walk, and have essentially replaced his starts with free agent signee Curt Gant.
In other important moves that did not re-shape the roster, bigpop34 drew up a five-year extension for two-time All Star RP Mike Lasker, a valuable bullpen piece for the club, and retained backup C Mike Cashner, who has accrued significant playing time behind season 23 Silver Slugger C Everth Hernandez the past three seasons.
Key additions: SS Edgardo Colon
Key losses: None
Last season, Scottsdale won 104 games, good for their second consecutive playoff berth and the best season after a long rebuild under alexkluge’s leadership.  Like division rival Santa Cruz, the Artichokes had a stellar pitching staff last season but, unlike the Mavericks, also had a top ten offense by various metrics.
After posting such a successful season, the Artichokes had a fairly quiet offseason, without much need to tinker.  In the most notable offseason acquisition, the club upgraded at shortstop, dealing prospect Pablo Nuno for Edgardo Colon, owner of 130 career HR through eight seasons and a recent four-year contract extension that begins in season 25.
Certainly, the club’s biggest moves came more than 20 games into the season with the promotion of several prospects (and the demotion of various long-term players to create roster space).  These include super prospect 3B Earl Reynolds, drafted by Scottsdale 6th overall in season 21.  He will make his long anticipated debut shortly, as will season 20 first-rounder RP Polin Martin and season 19 draftees RP Woodie Hutton, and slugging 1B Ivan Montilla.  These promotions should provide serious upgrade for a team that has begun the season 15-7.
NL West Analysis
The best division in the NL has certainly positioned itself to be the best once again.  Las Vegas addressed a serious need - its bullpen - and currently has no reason to believe another step back awaits them.  However, Scottsdale has managed to improve its already-top tier team and remains the team to beat in the West.  Santa Cruz, another team that could justify making relatively few big moves this offseason, may see itself become a serious buyer in advance of the non-waiver trade deadline should it need a boost in this competitive division down the stretch.

Despite its slow start, Omaha, under new and steady leadership, also appears ready to right the ship and stabilize for the duration of the season - though the ownership turmoil that endured makes it difficult to envision the club working its way out of the cellar for a third straight season.
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Monday, January 9, 2017

AL West Preview: Season 24

This entry marks the first of a series of previews by division for the young 24th season of Upper Deck.  A run down of each team will be followed by an overall analysis of the division.  We will start with the AL West - the division of the reigning champion Albuquerque Arrows.


Albuquerque had a reasonably quiet offseason, but as the expression goes, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”  The Arrows have won at least 97 games in each of the last six seasons and are coming off of their second World Series victory of the last four seasons.
The team was not without its offseason losses, however.  LHP Ramiro Bonifacio, signed away by the Salem Witch Hunts, made 208 appearances (130 starts) over five seasons with the club, compiling a 79-36 record to go with a 1.34 WHIP and 3.94 ERA in 841 innings pitched.  RHP Kurt Cepeda, 30, had spent his entire career with the Arrows organization, pitching well above league average along the way, despite a rocky season 23 (.300/.353/.538 against, 6.79 ERA in 55.2 IP).  He has signed with the Chicago Old Style.  Both pitchers were tied to draft pick compensation.
To replace those fairly productive arms, the Arrows moved to sign a couple of veterans: 36-year old southpaw Bob Keefe and 35-year old Albert Maradona.  Keefe, who has split time between the rotation and the bullpen over his career, signed a one-year pact worth $5.5M (including bonuses).  After a similar career workload to Bonifacio, Keefe’s career numbers come in slightly more favorably, with a 1.31 WHIP and sub-4.00 ERA.  Maradona, with more than 2,200 IP under his belt, signed a two-year pact worth $13M.  Both Keefe and Maradona have begun the season in the bullpen.
The biggest offseason move the Arrows made, however, may be the two-year extension of 1B Harry Crawford. The slick-fielding 32-year old clocked 48 HR and drove in 122 runs in season 23, slightly outperforming his robust career .262/.343/.507 triple slash.  He has thus far spent his entire career with this organization. The deal buys out his final season of arb eligibility and his first year of Free Agency.


Under the leadership of hofstad_c, Fresno has improved by 17 games over the course of three seasons, finishing second to Albuquerque in the previous two.  In season 23, however, its pitching was considerably below league average.  And despite an offense that was well above average, two-time All Star Miguel Bocachica, the team’s primary RF, retired.
To combat some of their pitching woes, the team parted ways with declining SP King High, who won 15 games in season 23 despite sub-par peripherals, and replaced him with SPs Phil Chen and Rule 5 pickup Bobby Lovullo.  Chen offers promise as a heavy sinker baller, but Lovullo, whose young career consists of only six starts, landed himself on the 60-day DL after only two in Fresno.  The team also dealt promising youngster Alfredo Pujols to put SP prospect Ahmed Olmos in the pipeline.
To counteract Bocachica’s departure, the Nighthawks signed power hitting 1B Omar Blasco to a three-year pact and picked 1B Dallas Bolsinger in the Rule 5 Draft, paving the way for what could be an effective platoon and allowing Rafael Balentien, who hit 39 HR last season, to shift to RF.  Oswaldo Alomar also provides a reliable bench bat, easing the departure of Orber Moreno, an offensively sound backup catcher.

Key losses: None
Honolulu, like their division rival Fresno, have also improved in each of the last three seasons, though that hasn’t been enough to prevent three consecutive last place finishes.  In season 23, the Lava still found themselves somewhat below average in the batter’s box and on the hill.  Further, the Lava rated as below average defensively, a problem for a staff that can rely somewhat heavily on the ground ball.
The Lava didn’t lose many ML contributors this offseason, aside from a reliever with a bloated ERA or two.  They signed pitch calling wizard Blaine Knotts to back up primary catcher Oleg Blair, but their biggest move of the offseason involved the dealing of big time prospect Carlos Martinez for two prospects and 2B Gonzalez Carrasco, who has just made his big league debut and who easily fits into the Lava’s lineup as one of its more dynamic hitters.
Aside from those moves, key extensions were given.  RP Steve Ondrusek, who converted 31 of 36 saves for Honolulu last season, was signed to a two-year extension that carries a mutual option for season 26.  Additionally, 25-year old SP Vladimir Calvo was given a five-year extension, buying out his first two seasons of free agency. Calvo, acquired in another deal with Fresno last season, has shown promise at times during his young career, including a 1.28 WHIP in more than 100 innings in Fresno prior to last season’s trade.  Honolulu is betting on five seasons of that pitcher with this extension.


As with Honolulu and Fresno, Salem was plagued by a subpar pitching staff in season 23.  For this reason, the team finished four under .500 despite its powerful offense and above average defense, anchored by perennial Gold Glover Aubrey Kelly.
The Witch Hunts let SP Phil Chen walk, lured Ramiro Bonifacio away from division rival Albuquerque, and added groundball pitcher Jamie Fulchino, hoping both would strengthen the rotation.  In a bit of bad luck, though, Bonifacio suffered a stress fracture in his elbow in his fourth start in Salem.  Fortunately, the club did not lose its 13th overall pick pick, which was protected, for the signing.  They also acquired a pair of dynamite prospects in Domingo Nunez and Howard Rolls.
Salem also released arb eligible Stryker Pagan, who had played a variety of positions and averaged more than 35 home runs per seasons over the last three years.  While the production may be missed, the Witch Hunts will rely more heavily on Cesar Moraga and Sandy Sullivan at 3B and LF, respectively.  Both players are quite productive in their own right.
Despite such high profile additions and the loss of Pagan, some of the biggest moves came in the form of promotions from its minor league pipeline.  Salem traded defensive wizard to the New Britain Rock Cats, opening the door for rookie SS Pablo Aguilar, another defensive minded shortstop but with a stronger bat.  Among the other promotions include heavy ground ball pitcher Del Reagan and electrifying SP Zip Lawrence, who has already greatly reduced the impact of Bonifacio’s injury in his young career.
AL West Analysis
Honolulu continues to make incremental improvements to their big league club while continuing to build up their farm.  Fresno, while also continuing to rebuild, has bas aggressively upgraded parts of its club, though it may still find problems in its rotation with Lovullo going down early.

Meanwhile, Salem may have addressed its most pressing ML needs most aggressively, giving them short odds to be the most improved team in the division.  That said, Albuquerque is still the team to beat - and not just in the AL West - after returning much of the same roster from last season’s championship club.
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