Friday, January 13, 2017

AL East Preview: Season 24

This entry marks the fifth of a series of previews by division for the young 24th season of Upper Deck.  A run down of each team will be followed by an overall analysis of the division.  We will continue with the AL East.
Key additions: None.
Key losses: None.
Last season, Baltimore’s formidable offense, led by future Hall of Famer Don Tamura, was a top five offense by several metrics.  That success was tempered, however, by a pitching staff that was statistically average in almost every way and a defense that committed the sixth most errors (121) in the league.
The Dry Docks clearly have a formula for success, however, as they’ve accrued six postseason berths and finished with fewer than 84 wins only twice since general manager krisr took over in season 16.  Despite a minor step back the past two seasons, Baltimore still clearly has the core to compete, with a rotation led by SPs Luis Diaz, Trevor Allen, and Emilio Cordero, a bullpen flanked by CP Tony Romero, and a lineup built around Tamura and DH Aaron King.
A promotion to prospect RF Jose Quevedo constitutes the biggest move for the team, bolstering the bench.  So while the team may find themselves active at the deadline should the East continue to be competitive - all four teams finished with at least 82 wins in season 23 - the Dry Docks are certainly in good position to compete once again.


The Swinging Hoosiers of season 23 had an above average offense, and were, in fact, one of the best contact hitting teams in the league - their .276 team batting average ranked second only to eventual World Series Champion Albuquerque.  As with the Dry Docks, though, a pitching staff was the limiting factor.  The staff was significantly below average in season 23 despite inducing 430 double plays, good for 3rd most in the league.
Aware of its needs, Indianapolis GM egide was decisive this offseason, placing a big emphasis on the pitching staff.  The team brought back starter Austin Sanders, who had spent the past two-plus seasons in Richmond, as well as signing Max Trajano to fill out the rotation.  Veteran Jose Rijo, with more than 2,000 innings under his belt, was also brought in to strengthen the front end of the pen.
Meanwhile, despite an offense that hit the ball well, the Swinging Hoosiers felt that more power was needed for this season’s lineup, addressing an area the team lacked last season.  Gregory Erdos, famed contact hitter, started at first last season in Indy, but the team declined his option and moving Carlos Ortiz from left field, gaining the expected power profile at first.  They replaced his production in left field by trading John Crede, who performed well in center last season, and another for the powerful David Valdes.  Jarrett Reese was brought in to replace Crede in center.
The team also allowed long-time DH Gary Patrick to walk, and though the fans may miss him, egide has replaced his production well in the lineup. An extension to RF Norm Knight and the promotion of 2B Aramis Perez round out a busy offseason in Indy.


Iowa City has been rebuilding for a long time, but finally tasted the fruit of those labors last season with an 88-win campaign.  Despite an offense that rated as only slightly above average, the Small Bears finish 8th in the league home runs. They were carried by a pitching staff that posted a healthy .250/.318/.401 line against.
Despite the success, however, the team missed out on the postseason, and GM rschaitkin saw room for improvement.  Through aggressive maneuvering in the trade market, the club acquired young started Steve Holden to solidify the rotation.  The team also acquired DH Rougned Sierra via trade.  In both instances, the club parted with prospects who had been acquired throughout the rebuild.
The offense lost Doug Burks, who started 93 games at shortstop in season 23, and DH Sparky McMurtry, who batted .281 with 28 home runs and 84 RBI last season.  Their production will be replaced by the savvy signing of Quinton Brohawn, as well as the aforementioned Sierra and trade acquisition Bob Axford, also acquired for prospects.
Iowa City also extended SP Rob Farr, who performed well after coming over in a trade last season and who they hope will be a key cog in the rotation for the next four to five seasons.  They also signed reliever Sean Fischer and traded for Carl Henry to replace the swing innings lost by the departure of Max Trajano.
Pittsburgh Pilots

In season 23, the Pittsburgh Pilots extended a playoff berth streak to five seasons and won its second consecutive AL East division title.  The playoff run wouldn’t last long, though, as the club fell in the playoffs’ opening round.  Though the Pilots featured a top 10 pitching staff in many regards, the bullpen surrendered a league high 28 blown saves.  Problems with the offense, who carried a subpar .324 on base percentage, were exacerbated by an average defense that had problems up the middle.
To address its needs, Pittsburgh went all in on superstar Rodney Bradley, ultimately signing him for $110 million over five seasons.  In him, the club got a player capable of protecting (or of being protected by) franchise cornerstone Chili Cornelius.  The signing did, however, tighten the Pilots’ payroll flexibility, leading to the waiver claim of Max Marmol to become the everyday second baseman, though his defensive ability also helps to fix some of the middle infield woes from a season prior.  It also precluded the re-signing of Eliezer Camacho, a productive member of the Pittsburgh outfield for three-plus seasons.
The other major need - the bullpen - was addressed by the low-risk signing of reliever Harold Lee off of a down season in Las Vegas.  The club also dealt C Phil Clifton to Sioux City for sinker baller Mario Barclay and re-signed the bullpen’s lone bright spot from a season ago, CP Albert Jimenez, who saved 39 of 44 opportunities.
In other notable moves, Pittsburgh re-signed 1B/LF Andy Stark on a one-year pact, extended Gold Glove CF Galahad Merloni through season 25, and promoted SS Tony Banks to platoon with SS Izzy Crow.  The platoon sacrifices the offensive potential offered by Stuffy Stanley, who they club let walk, in favor of a strong defense that should help a pitching staff reliant on the ground ball.
AL East Analysis
The flurry of moves that Indianapolis made this offseason open the door for them to be the division’s most improved team, which could have significant implications considering the last place team still finished with 82 wins a season ago.  Baltimore, who had possibly the quietest offseason in the league, still has the core to compete, and may find themselves buying at the deadline.
Like Indianapolis, Iowa City had a similarly busy offseason, stabilizing a team that finished only three games behind Pittsburgh for first place in the division last season.  Their focus on younger players and trades should allow this window to remain open for seasons to come.  Meanwhile, Pittsburgh made moves they hope will fortify a bullpen that ruined some of the starting five’s fun from a season ago, and added a big bat that they hope will push the team’s offense over the top.

In this division, which may end up as the most competitive of season 24, there may be no clear frontrunner, and it would not be shocking to see the division send multiple teams to the playoffs.
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Thursday, January 12, 2017

NL South Preview: Season 24

This entry marks the fourth of a series of previews by division for the young 24th season of Upper Deck.  A run down of each team will be followed by an overall analysis of the division.  We will continue with the NL South.
Key additions: 3B William Gourley
Key losses: None.
Since season 15, the Colt 45’s have had only one season above .500.  Despite that, the team has had only one fourth place finish in that span.  The trend held last season: Houston finished third place with 75 wins, despite a pitching staff that featured a sub-4.00 era and the only defense in the division that rated as significantly above average.
Due to the recent woes, Houston finds itself deep within a rebuild.  The rebuild has yielded some incredibly exciting prospects, including last season’s 9th overall pick RF Rob Hayes and 2B Napoleon Bloomquist, who seems to be knocking on the ML club’s door.
One does not suddenly change directions after committing to such an extensive rebuild, of course.  Thus, general manager andyr104 made little news this offseason.  The team lost few players that rated significantly above replacement level last season, and added only William Gourley, who should add some pop off of the bench.
Ultimately, though, Houston and its fans need not look too far down the line to envision what a playoff team may look like.  Young SPs Don Lo, Homer Simpkins, Dayan Morales, and Lorenzo Lee may form a fierce foursome for years to come, while 1B Crash Slusarski is one appealing core player on the offensive side of things.  For the Colt 45’s, their patience should soon be rewarded.


Like division rival Houston, the Generals are deep within a rebuild, not having had more than 80 wins since season 14.  Last season, they sported the lowest OPS in the league and league average pitching and defensive units.  Unlike their rival, however, Jackson took a more aggressive approach this offseason.
The team let Vic Arenado, a productive bench bat who started nearly 70 times at second base last season, and outfielder Ichiro Wang walk.  The club also traded starter Steve Holden, in the second year of a three-year term, for shortstop prospect Yorvit Escobar, a defensive stud with what could be an above average bat.  The club also felt regular 2B Carlos Aparicio for a pair of prospects.
Jackson was fortunate enough to grab 2B Doc Spivey in the Rule 5 draft, and he has replaced the production at second, and then some.  Alfredo Pujols was acquired in exchange for season 22 first rounder SP Ahmed Olmos and is set to take on a versatile bench role.  Other young players acquired throughout the rebuild include RF Mac Riefenhauser, recently promoted LF Jorge Guerrero, and current number 1 SP Horace Marzilli.

In a more minor move, the retention of 12-year veteran C Rod Beamon will take the burden off of starting catcher Bengie Chavez, and may help ease a young rotation.


Since GM Feamster took over, the Illegal Ancient Aliens have steadily improved over five seasons.  In season 23, they captured their second consecutive second place finish, despite a disappointing offense that triple slashed .246/.309/.407, and pitching that was only marginally better than average.
In order to help their anemic offense, Feamster signed long time Indianapolis DH Gary Patrick, owner of nearly 375 career home runs, as well as T.J. St. Clair, who carries an .895 OPS in nearly 7,000 plate appearances over his career.  They should replace the production of powerful bench bat Jordan Stark, who himself is just two seasons removed from hitting 24 home runs.  As far as the pitching staff goes, long time Alien Bob Keefe was signed away, though his spot in the bullpen was quickly filled by stud Roberto Nieves.
Aside from those moves, many of the pieces on this season’s team remain the same.  However, Mexico City clearly values its core players, doling out five-year extensions to ace SP Glenn Thurman and stud LF Brennan Sturdevant.  These extensions give the Illegal Ancient Aliens, who may currently be only a few moves away from a serious contender, a long window to make their move in the NL South.


Over the years, the Richmond Brewers have developed a reputation as having one of the best pitching staffs in the league.  In season 23, their strength on the hill allowed them to overcome a stagnant offense to win their ninth consecutive division title.  And, given the traditional focus on pitching, it is no surprise that it once again captivated the Brewers this offseason.
Richmond lost a variety of its supporting cast this offseason, but added relievers Jeurys Bastardo and Malcolm Baez to pick up some of those innings.  The club also acquired groundballer Emmanuel Gibson in a trade with New Britain, thus far to stellar results.  One key loss to the rotation was starter Austin Sanders being signed away by Indianapolis.  While those innings may be difficult to replace, the team hopes that waiver claim Brad Malloy may provide the solution.  The team also lost bit players Chico Ugueto and Lorenzo Guillen, and hope that the production will be replaced by CF Ichiro Wang and 3B Hades Hermanson.
Importantly, extensions to closer Slim McGowan and offensive bright spot Shaggy Eickhoff allow the club to build its offense and bullpen around two young, reliable players, giving stability to a team whose presence in the playoffs is as sure a thing as almost anything.
NL South Analysis
While the Colt 45’s have done little to improve their current situation, they currently host a bright core of young players and may only be a few pieces from contention.  Fortunately for them, those few pieces are rapidly rising through the ranks and should be able to make an impact soon, though they may not contend this season.  Similarly, division rival Jackson should soon feel the impact of its rebuild, though a more aggressive offseason may make them the most improved in the division this season.

Richmond is still the team to beat, though they may find themselves looking for help in the back end of their rotation and/or bullpen should they feel the offseason acquisitions insufficiently plug the holes they were intended to fill.  Mexico City, meanwhile, certainly has the core to compete, and filled its offseason needs rather well, but also may find itself buying at the deadline if it finds itself within striking range of a postseason berth at the deadline.
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Wednesday, January 11, 2017

AL South Preview: Season 24

This entry marks the third of a series of previews by division for the young 24th season of Upper Deck.  A run down of each team will be followed by an overall analysis of the division.  We will continue with the AL South.






The Sultans had one of the more complete teams in season 23, with a top 10 offense, defense, and pitching staff, leading them to their consecutive division title.  After two consecutive first round exits, however, some changes were in order.
SP Josh Shaw, a 17-game winner just a season ago, was allowed to walk via free agency.  A combination of pitchers have been tapped to pick up valuable innings - most recently the new acquisitions Travis Stripling and Daryl Wohlers, the latter being a veteran with nearly 3,000 career IP and 177 career victories.  The bullpen was strengthened by the signing of groundball pitcher Antonio Richardson and the retention of RP Pepe Beltre.
Offensively, the trade of Edgardo Colon, who made 79 starts at short in season 23, to Scottsdale ceded the position to promising youngster SS Steven Roosevelt.  Defensive stud Doug Lloyd was signed to split catching duties with Jhoulys Canseco.  Gerald Hoffman (.303/.362/.472 in season 23) made starts at a number of positions last season, but was let go and remains unsigned. Chris Knoblauch, another bench bat who hit 22 bombs in season 23 to pad his .251 ISO, suffered a similar fate.  Those roles have been filled by 2B Moe Stanifer and 3B Miguel Cervantes.




Key losses: LF Ren Fujiwara
Though New Orleans had an offense that was roughly in line with the middle of the league last season, its pitching staff surrendered a league-worst .488 slugging percentage, while its defense committed nearly an error per game.  However, this is not without reason; the team, which has been under .500 since season 17, is deep within a rebuild that has garnered top prospects such as SS Ralph Walker and SP Bill Stuart, and trade acquisition RP David Johnson recently debuted as well.
The Crawdaddies let 1B/LF/DH Ren Fujiwara walk this offseason, and experienced some minor losses to the rotation.  These innings have been accounted for in part by free agent signee Fausto Romero, but largely through the promotion of SP Gary Beresford, who is averaging more than six innings per start in his young career.  The club also hopes that Gorkys Sosa will stabilize the bullpen.
The Crawdaddies’ most significant moves came in the form of contract extensions to several players.  RF Willie Ontiveros received a five-year extension that buys out his first three seasons of free agency, 25-year old 2B Hernan Lee received a three-year renewal, and 3B Donnie Morris received five-year pact that buys out his first four seasons of free agency.  These extensions provide a long window during which the Crawdaddies can compete.





Oklahoma City has placed a premium on defense, an important feature of a team that relies as heavily on the ground ball as the Cowboys.  And it may be that combination that led the club to 91 victories and its second consecutive wild card berth - despite a pitching staff and offense that rate in as just slightly above average.
One of the team’s greatest strengths from a season ago was a late innings bullpen that featured Roscoe Barkley, who converted 47 of 49 save opportunities last season and was recognized as Fireman of the Year.  However, general manager rkdixon saw an opportunity to upgrade, trading Barkley for Davey Torres, a serious offensive and pitch calling upgrade for the club behind the dish.  As for the bullpen, RP Pepper Cumberland has stepped into the closer role, thus far with great success.
In a move that corresponds to the Torres acquisition, the Cowboys dealt Johan LaHair, a fine offensive catcher, for Ted Park.  In nearly two full seasons since leaving Pittsburgh, Park has emerged as a reliable everyday option, hitting .288 and bashing 45 home runs.  The club hopes that he and shortstop Ramiro Pujols can improve an offense that lost DH Omar Blasco while maintaining their defensive integrity.




Key losses: SP Bob Leyritz
The Water Dogs won 84 games last season, tied for their second highest total since season 16.  Unfortunately, the team and its top 10 OPS were hobbled by a defense that committed 17 more errors (121) than the league average and pitching staff whose peripherals rate slightly below average.
The team did not suffer many major losses, with the most damaging being starter Bob Leyritz.  Over the past three seasons, Leyritz has contributed more than 600 innings to the Tampa rotation, 36 starts of which resulted in wins for the southpaw.  Fortunately, the spot of resident lefty has been filled by 28-year old tongue twister and starting pitcher Greg Craig, who has thus far filled in admirably with a 1.29 WHIP.  The club also signed Mark Matsui to eat innings out of the bullpen.
Many of the team’s moves came in the form of extending current talent.  Identifying players that give the club the best chance to win, GM jmaese extended DH John Buddie, owner of a career .291 batting average and 347 career HR, 3B C.J. Mitre and his 366 career long balls, and defensive wiz SS Turner Snopek.  All three are extended through at least season 26 and extend the team’s window to build around its core.
AL South Analysis
Though New Orleans may not contend this season, prudent moves should allow the team to couple its well cultivated minor league pipeline with its current talent in the near future and validate its long rebuild.  Tampa Bay has also positioned itself to build around its current core, ideally reversing an up-and-down trend that has left them out of two of the previous three postseasons.  Just how soon the Water Dogs make the playoffs will largely depend on the rotation’s ability to stay healthy and effective.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City and Monterrey seem well positioned to compete once again, though perhaps one (or both) may take a step back this season.  The Cowboys took some risks this offseason - namely in trading Barkley - but worked hard to improve its offense without hurting its defense. The Sultans, meanwhile, made a fully of moves this offseason while simultaneously committing to players already within the system, but may find itself rather active at the trade deadline should they need to replace lost production.

The division may once again come down to Monterrey and Oklahoma City, though the division should be competitive like last season, when the Sultans and Cowboys both finished with 91 wins - just seven ahead of the Water Dogs.
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